The annual CES – Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, Nevada, is always a great opportunity for trendspotting and innovation hunting in consumer electronics including consumer robotics. CES 2013 will be held January 8-11 and some of the hot topics discussed this year will be mobility and connectivity, the new mantra of consumer electronics, the state of tech retailing in 2013 including show rooming, battling for online supremacy, OEMs going direct, private label. Other topics are cloud computing and the implications for consumer tech and the future of auto technology.

Credit: Suitable Technologies, Beam

Telepresence robots have been identified as a promising consumer application for many years and there is a growing number of start-up companies developing new mobile platforms for video conferencing, tele-traveling and remote control.

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It was announced today that Grishin Robotics  was investing $250,000 into Y Combinator startup Double Robotics. Double Robotics have already sold out their first order of affordable telepresence robots and look poised to meet the increased demand in high tech low cost consumer robotics with this investment (see previous post “Double Robotics – Crossing the Chasm?“).

Double Robotics, a recent graduate from Y Combinator (http://ycombinator.com), builds telepresence robots, characterized by ground-breaking price ($2,499, can be pre-ordered now for $1,999), great design, light weight and high level of simplicity — it works right “out of box” and uses iPad as a platform.

Double Robotics already has $1.2 million (600 units) in pre-orders (in one month since the launch), from 44 countries around the world. Customers include 24 universities, as well as 17 Fortune 500 companies. Since the first production run of Double has already sold out, the investment from Grishin Robotics will be spent primarily on scaling manufacturing, as well as hiring and further product development. New pre-orders will be delivered in early 2013. Engineers interested in career in Double Robotics can get in touch with the company by the e-mail jobs@doublerobotics.com. [Press Release NEW YORK, NY–(Marketwire – Sep 21, 2012)]

Double Robotics have just moved into their own premises in Mountain View, and it’s encouraging to see that Silicon Valley startup culture is producing such good returns for robotics, both for robotics professionals and for the hopes of robot companies looking for investors. The time is ripe for consumer oriented robots that are more than toys. Sophisticated robotics have become affordable – largely by leveraging smartphone and tablet technology and internet connectivity. This aligns with Dmitry Grishin’s background as cofounder of mail.Ru, the giant Russian mail and media service. It will be interesting to see if Grishin stays in the comfort zone of communication robotics in the future, or steps out into the world of more task oriented robotics.

“Investment in Double Robotics perfectly fits our strategy,” said Dmitry Grishin, founder of Grishin Robotics. “It is a consumer-oriented product with potential to fit a broad range of applications and has already generated strong consumer demand. It’s also important that the price of the product makes it accessible to the wide audience. In addition, the team has creative approach to design and is keen to build user-friendly products — both are very important focus areas for next-generation personal robotics companies. Double Robotics is well positioned to leverage the unique potential of the prominent telepresence robotics market. We have a great belief in Double Robotics team and its product.”

“We are thrilled to have Grishin Robotics and Dmitry Grishin, in particular, as our largest investor to date,” said David Cann, Co-founder of Double Robotics. “We read about the new investment firm and Dmitry’s experience in the field of robotics in June 2012 when the fund was announced. The timing was perfect, as we were just beginning the Y Combinator program with our prototype robot. After our public launch in August, we met with Grishin Robotics and were immediately impressed with their mission and deep knowledge of the robotics industry’s past mistakes and potential future. We look forward to working with Grishin Robotics in the years to come as we build our business.” [Press Release NEW YORK, NY–(Marketwire – Sep 21, 2012)]

Double Robotics, the Ycombinator company behind ‘wheels for the ipad’ is a fantastic showcase of the new breed of affordable consumer robotics. But can they cross the chasm? These guys know how to create a beautiful accessible easy to use robot. And so far, also how to market it.

Double Robotics’ first production run has sold out with over $1 million in orders. This combination of good initial marketing, affordable price point and getting preorders has allowed Double Robotics to avoid the Series A funding bottleneck.

Good news? In general, yes. However, I don’t believe that Double Robotics have found product/market fit. They’re using a shotgun strategy to cross the chasm, to make the move from early tech adopters to mainstream customers. It might work.

This is a challenge many robotics startups will face. Do you focus on selling your robot as a completely new solution with an unknown product/market fit? Or do you spend more time doing customer development, creating product/market fit in a specific vertical?

Ultimately, this raises the question of crossing the chasm vs race to the bottom.

Geoffrey Moore’s concept of a chasm (to be crossed) in the classic adoption cycle describes the difference between early adopter customers and the general market, and the resulting dilemma. Selling to the first segment of your cycle doesn’t guarantee selling to all segments, in spite of the hype your early evangelists drum up.

Double Robotics may have > $1 million in preorders, but at $2000 ea, that’s only 500+ orders. The early tech adopter market at that price point is probably 10-100 x larger. After that, Double need a more pragmatic model.  (I would argue that selling to educational, health and govt related organizations will keep the long tail wagging happily for years to come.  The value add can be simply in increasing the tech savvy reputation of organizations, eg. for $2500 ea my organization is going to be seen to be delivering innovative technological solutions regardless of ultimate practical use.)

Double are pitching a problem solved – cheap easy to use telerobotics – rather than a product for specific market uses. When someone discovers a viable business model, then Double may have the early mover advantage but it rapidly becomes a race to the bottom.

The race to the bottom, like the tragedy of the commons and the prisoner’s dilemma, occurs when communal good is overshadowed by individual greed. The moment that a product/market fit for cheap telerobotics emerges, competition for those market segments will inspire ever cheaper solutions. Robotic vacuum cleaners have been in a similar position. Originally, iRobot, Evolution Robotics/Mint and Neato, were specialist robotics companies with vacuum cleaners as their primary product. Now companies with robotic vacuum cleaners number in the dozens, from cut price clones like Metapo and iTouchless to large consumer appliance/electronics manufacturers like Samsung.

First mover companies have to compete to retain market share with companies that don’t fund research, development, or support and this can in turn damage overall market penetration. Less tech savvy consumers (like my family) have gone to purchase a whizz-bang robot vac and come away from the experience disappointed with the lack of features, the performance, robustness and reliability. Ipods might be mp3 players but not all mp3 players are ipods.

If an idea finally matures, like robot vacuum cleaners, then the originals are also competing against large companies who can access economies of scale including in support, like Samsung. Robotics is in an interesting situation – does it become subsumed into the next product iteration, where every product has robotic features and none worth talking about. Cars are a good example. Or do the ‘robotic’ features carry enough value for niche (robotics) companies to flourish?

Is ‘wheels for your ipad’ going to be a robot company or just another ipad accessory? And can Double Robotics be more than just an early adopter robot toy?

[published on The Robot Launchpad Sept 12 2012]