From Amazon’s delivery drones to self-driving cars, autonomous factory equipment to Elon Musk’s 760 mph vacuum tubes – automated vehicles are on the rise.

The improvements do not come without challenges, however. One key concern is cyber risk. We need to ensure that autonomous units cannot be hacked. Also, ethical questions need to be answered – how to decide whom a vehicle is supposed to save in case of an accident, for example. Policy-makers also need to consider the impact on jobs: where to start, where to slow down the autonomous economy to avoid unwanted consequences, starting with unemployment.

Source: weforum.org

Source: Momentum Machines

Re-joining the ranks, Sony announced a return to robotics. Momentum is opening a robot hamburger shop. And Starship is beginning to deliver food to three cities in Europe.

Sony

At a recent stockholders meeting, Sony Chief Executive Kazuo Hirai said that Sony, a conglomerate that has divisions in finance, network services and entertainment in addition to hardware, planned to move toward a more ambitious future and that robotics will play a role in that journey.

“We need to push the envelope to really grow Sony into other parts in all of the electronics business, where we know we could make a difference,” Mr. Hirai told The Wall Street Journal, in an interview. “You can have all these great services and content, but there is a device you need to enjoy it, or actually to feed information to the network,” he said.

Hirai also said that Sony is planning a new wave of consumer robots that will be able to bond with humans, suggesting that Sony will begin selling a competing line of products to SoftBank Robotics’ Pepper home robots, Jibo, and Amazon’s Alexa line. Sony already has an extensive electronics line including GoPro and drone add-on gimbals, cameras and other devices.

Years ago, Sony developed the Aibo robotic dog – a charming interactive product that sold 150,000 units from 1999 to 2006. Toward the end, Sony upgraded Aibo to use a camera to recognize its owner and added extra personalities to its repertoire of moves and responses. Competing companies, particularly Dongbu Robot, a Korean company, use newer technology — and lower costs — to offer Aibo-like toy robot dogs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2l2P8Uz0LkA

The business model for new Sony robotic products involves selling a robot that requires a reoccurring subscription service for data and maintenance with frequent software updates, a similar plan to Pepper.

Momentum Machines

A June San Francisco area Craigslist ad advertised for a restaurant generalist to work at a Folsom Street store selling robot-made hamburgers. The store, at 680 Folsom Street, is on the ground floor of a 14-story office building, south of Market Street in the heart of San Francisco.

“This location will feature the world-premiere of our proprietary and remarkable new advances in technology that enable the automatic creation of impossibly delicious burgers at prices everyone can afford. The burgers sold at 680 Folsom will be fresh-ground and grilled to order, served on toasted brioche, and accented by an infinitely personalizable variety of fresh produce, seasonings, and sauces.” [Editorial comment: Wow! What a mouthful!]

SF is home to the popular automat-style restaurant Eatsa which takes orders for quinoa bowls via iPad and places them in cubby-holes ready for payment and pickup. The ordering process for Eatsa is to walk up to an iPad and construct and pay for your order whereupon it gets delivered to a cubby earmarked for you. It is likely that Momentum plans something similar for its new as-yet unnamed hamburger store, perhaps with a more personal delivery method combining other items like drinks and fries.

Starship Technologies

Starship, an Estonian startup funded by two of the founders of Skype, has been testing a mobile delivery robot in 12 countries for the last nine months. The devices have traveled 5,000 miles and met over 400,000 people, according to Starship’s Marketing and Comms Manager:

“We have learnt a lot in those 5000 miles of testing!  We learned that 60-65% of people don’t pay the robot any attention. The robot integrates in public life a lot easier than we thought it would. The remaining % of people are overwhelmingly positive. We were also, of course, trialing the technology and the reliability of the robots. In all of these tests, we were pleasantly surprised.

The tests were conducted mainly in Tallinn, Estonia and London. We also tested in many other countries including the US, Switzerland, Germany, Belgium, Austria, Spain, etc.

[Regarding our new trial], we haven’t changed much, apart from putting more robots onto the streets for testing. We want to increase the number of miles driven on sidewalks around the world to get even more accurate data.  The major difference between our new testing program in UK, Germany and Switzerland is that, for the first time in our history, we are signing up commercial partners like Just Eat. This enables us to enter into a new phase of testing and start doing real world deliveries in real world environments.

[In answer to a question as to the cost of the robot devices] We are a delivery company, and therefore it is unlikely we will be selling the robots. We will be providing a delivery service which includes the robots, the maintenance, the human oversight and everything in-between! All for a monthly fee!”

Starship will be working with London food delivery startup Pronto as well as German parcel company Hermes and the Metro Group of retailers, plus, Just Eat restaurant food delivery to trial on-your-schedule-delivery of packages, groceries and meals.

Integrated navigation and obstacle avoidance software enables the robots to drive autonomously (Photo: Starship Technologies)

This article was first published on the IEC e‑tech website.

From robots delivering small packages in cities, to driverless trucks transporting bulk loads over long distances, advances in robotic delivery in the next decade will lead to significant changes in retail markets, the freight haulage industry and transport in general.

New capabilities and functions for transportation

Most trials of autonomous delivery services have involved aerial drones or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Meanwhile, the latest “connected car” technologies are being tested in hundreds of semi‑autonomous cars on public roads around the world. In the words of a report by the US‑based market research and consulting firm Navigant Research in April 2016, “electrification, sensing and actuation technology, wireless connectivity and mobile apps built on the internet have each spawned fascinating new capabilities and functions for transportation.”

As these trends converge, several companies are trialling the use of driverless wheeled vehicles in urban environments for “last mile” deliveries of food orders and small packages, regarded as the most problematic and least efficient step in the e‑commerce delivery chain. These terrestrial drones are battery‑powered and drive themselves along city pavements and cycle lanes without the active intervention of a human operator. They are equipped with sensors and location technology to avoid collisions with pedestrians or street furniture, and microphones for two‑way communication.

Robots, electric trucks and trolleys with a degree of automation have been used for decades in factories and warehouses to transport products and packages or deliver mail to offices. In hospitals, fleets of autonomous robots travel for miles along corridors delivering medical supplies, patients’ meals and other goods. Warehouse and logistics sectors are increasingly automating the supply chain process to meet the growing need for accuracy and faster delivery time. Recently BMW Group has tested suitcase‑size self‑driving robotic trolleys on its factory floors in Germany, as part of an automation drive to help cut costs by 5% per car annually.

Minimizing risks with IEC standards

Autonomous delivery vehicles and self-driving cars have many safety requirements and standards in common. The primary aim is to ensure that automated systems operate efficiently and to minimize the risks to pedestrians and road users as well as goods.

Several IEC Technical Committee (TCs) and Subcommittees (SCs) draw up International Standards for the electronic systems, sensors, motors and batteries used in the driverless technology found in electric-powered autonomous vehicles.

IEC TC 69: Electric road vehicles and electric industrial trucks, prepares Standards for motors and motor controllers, on-board electrical energy storage systems, power supplies and chargers.

Since energy for smaller robot delivery vehicles is supplied mainly by batteries, TC 69 liaises closely with TC 21: Secondary cells and batteries, and its SCs, which prepare International Standards for all secondary cells and batteries. This covers the performance, dimensions, safety installation principles and labelling of batteries used for the propulsion of electric road vehicles. These batteries can be of the lead-acid, lithium‑ion, nickel-metal-hydrid or lithium iron phosphate types, for instance.

TC 105: Fuel cell technologies, prepares International Standards for fuel cell technologies which are already widely deployed in the industrial and commercial electric vehicle sector.

Now you see me

Many road-going trucks already include semi-autonomous safety features such as lane change sensors and cruise control. In Europe, all new trucks sold since November 2015 must by law be fitted with autonomous emergency braking.

The next generation of autonomous delivery vehicles is likely to incorporate even more technology already being tested in driverless cars to detect obstacles and hazards. This typically comprises GPS receivers and detailed maps to navigate roads, and a range of 3D vision guidance systems and electronic sensors including laser‑surveying systems known as Lidars (light detection and ranging). Lidar sensors fire lasers ahead and analyse the signal reflected back, scanning the road as far as 200 m ahead of the vehicle.

Other autonomous driving technology common to cars and delivery vehicles includes electronic stability control, rear‑ and forward‑view camera systems, sensor arrays to transmit data between those systems and a vehicle’s engine, transmission and brakes, and wireless communication subsystems to communicate with a controller and other vehicles.

IEC work in standardization contributes significantly to the sensors that make driverless technology possible. International Standards prepared by IEC TC 47: Semiconductor devices, and IEC SC 47F: Microelectromechanical systems, enable manufacturers to build more reliable and efficient sensors and microelectromechanical systems (MEMS). TC 56: Dependability, covers the reliability of electronic components and equipment.

Robot at your door

Battery-powered delivery robots that interact with customers via a smartphone app are being tested on streets – or rather, pavements – in at least three continents.

Estonia-based Starship Technologies, launched by two co-founders of Skype, has built a fleet of small battery-powered six-wheeled delivery robots with a payload of 9 kg. The robots can operate continuously for more than two hours between charges and are intended for short-range deliveries from local businesses in residential areas, travelling on pavements rather than roads. Tests have been carried out in Estonia, Germany, Belgium and the US, and further trials are under way in the London suburb of Greenwich. Each robot has built‑in 3G and GPS as well as an array of cameras, sensors and obstacle-avoidance software to help it detect pedestrians and travel safely up to its maximum speed of 6.5 kph. Although the robots are overseen by human operators to ensure safety, their creators say door‑to‑door delivery costs could be reduced by 10-15% compared with conventional vehicles like vans or mopeds.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MEWfsVPqKi4

Another autonomous delivery start‑up, Dispatch, is piloting the delivery of mail and packages on college and university campuses in California. Its four-wheeled autonomous vehicle can carry a load of 45 kg and is powered by a lithium-ion battery that allows 12 hours of use. Equipped with cameras and Lidar technology, this delivery robot absorbs data as it navigates along pavements and cycle paths at a walking pace, becoming “smarter” with each trip.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_PKyKluMcNM

Australian start‑up Marathon Robotics has developed a four-wheeled autonomous vehicle that a global pizza chain is testing in Brisbane to make short‑range home deliveries. This electric vehicle can travel on both roads and footpaths and has a range of 20 km. It uses GPS to navigate and sensors including Lidar detection to avoid collisions.

A nascent market

The US technology research company Technavio predicts the overall market for mail‑sorting robots, unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) and drones that deliver products to customers from warehouses or manufacturing locations will grow from USD 15,32 million in 2015 to USD 54,07 million by 2020.

“The evolution of autonomous UGVs is in the nascent stage as most of the vendors are testing these robots for end-user delivery solutions… If these equipment pass the testing phase, then we expect them to hit the UK and the US markets by early 2017,” Technavio analyst Bharath Kanniappan told e-tech.

This represents only a tiny share of the overall worldwide market for logistics robots. According to Technavio, the global logistics robots market is expected to reach USD 2,15 billion in the five years from 2016 to 2020, growing at a CAGR of over 32% during the projected period. This market is dominated by mobile factory logistics robots, with a share of 81,9%.

The costs of the sensors and computing power required by autonomous vehicles continue to fall. The price of semiconductor lasers used in 3D Lidar sensors, now USD 1 300, is predicted to fall to USD 150 by 2025. Hardware and computing power costs are likely to reduce further once the adoption of robotic technology in delivery services gains momentum.

Nevertheless, business research and consulting firm Frost & Sullivan does not expect to see fully autonomous trucks deployed on US roads for at least another two decades. From a global perspective, the firm predicts that some 8 000 autonomous‑enabled trucks will be sold worldwide by 2025 for on-road applications, rising to more than 180 000 units by 2035.

Gonna roll this truckin’ convoy

Meanwhile, April 2016 brought the prospect of fleets of larger self‑driving delivery vehicles sharing public roads a step nearer. Six European truck companies each drove their vehicles in connected convoys on motorways in the continent’s first major test of autonomous “truck platooning” technology.

Platooning is seen as the first step in the autonomous vehicle process, leading to greater road safety as well as cost savings. Trucks travel in convoy at very close distances behind one another and communicate with wireless technology, which allows them to brake and accelerate together, cutting down wind resistance and potentially saving as much as 20% on fuel costs. On‑board collision mitigation and cruise control systems enable the driverless heavy goods vehicles to adapt to road conditions and enhance their ability to avoid accidents.

Drones and robots in tandem

Autonomous delivery trucks and robots will transform retail and home delivery, once issues like uneven delivery paths and the possibility of theft are resolved. There is potentially a big home delivery market for supermarkets, using driverless vehicles which are smaller than the current vans used to drop off groceries. New commercial services that combine driverless vehicles and aerial drones working in tandem to deliver to “the last mile” could also significantly reduce the time and costs of transporting packages direct to customers’ doors, provided they clear regulatory hurdles.

Deploying a fully autonomous vehicle, whether a passenger car or a delivery truck, will require further advances in software as well as sensor technology. Other conditions to be met before widespread adoption can occur include legislation on liability, standardization of rules across national borders and more public debate.

The consensus among most fleet operators in the US and Europe is that large-scale full automation of trucks is still some years away. Frost & Sullivan believes that while autonomous highway driving in passenger cars could become mainstream by 2020, platoons of driverless trucks will not appear until closer to 2022.

If you enjoyed this article, you may also enjoy reading:

• Robohub Digest 11/15: Service and consumer robots catching on
• Calculating why we should make a lot more robocars
• Delivery robots from Starship Technologies
• Self-driving trucks are coming — what will that mean?

I’m pleased to announce today [Monday] the unveiling of a new self-driving vehicle company with which I am involved, not building self-driving cars, but instead small delivery robots which are going to change the face of retailing and last-mile delivery and logistics.

Starship Technologies comes out of Europe, created by two of the founders of Skype, Janus Friis and Ahti Heinla who is CEO. The mission is similar to the vision I laid out in 2007 for the Deliverbot — the self-driving box that can get you anything in 30 minutes for under a dollar.

Here you can find the press release, a simple video and a collection of press and other videos.

Starship is still in early stages, but will be conducting a pilot project next year in the UK, and another in the USA shortly thereafter. Customers will be able to place online orders and have a robot come to their home immediately or on their schedule.

Why is this possible well before full unmanned self-driving cars can go into public use? There are all sorts of reasons.

• The boxes are not in a super hurry
• They will go slowly and cautiously
• They don’t mind detours, and can take the safest rather than shortest route to you
• It’s not a big deal if they have to pause if they encounter children or anything confusing or risky, or need to wait for a remote operator to solve a problem
• They will travel on the sidewalks, rather than the roads (already legal in many places, but work is needed in others)
• They will be slow and light, so that if something goes seriously wrong and they hit you, they won’t injure you
• They won’t hit you though, because they can come to a full stop in under a foot
• You don’t need crumple zones, airbags or other passenger safety features for cargo, making them simple and inexpensive

How big is the last mile? It’s huge. It’s not just what today’s delivery companies do. Most deliveries are actually made by customers who run out to stores to get stuff. The Starship robot will bring you things in less time than a round-trip shopping trip would take, for less money, and with vastly less energy, pollution, traffic congestion and parking. It’s a win for the store, the customer and for society.

https://youtu.be/MEWfsVPqKi4

It’s a really big win for those with disabilities or difficulty moving. The elderly are going to be able to live in their own homes with greater independence, even if shopping has become such a chore they were contemplating a senior home.

The robots will eventually create an “internet of parcels” (I guess the term “internet of things” is already in use) where physical goods can move around cities with an ease surpassed only by data. Not only will you be able to buy anything, you’ll be able to rent things on short notice too, or borrow them from your neighbours. The sharing economy can be enabled and the meaning of ownership may change.

The convenience of robot delivery will surprise people. A common question I get asked is “What does the robot do if you’re not home when it delivers?” and my answer is, “why would you want the robot to deliver when you’re not home?” Regular delivery runs on the driver’s schedule, robotic delivery will run on yours. Robots don’t mind waiting either, so you could ask a shop to put five pairs of shoes into a robot, and at home you could try them on and put four pairs back in the robot and keep the ones you like.

I also expect interesting changes in prepared food. It will be possible to run a “restaurant” inexpensively in a private kitchen and get ingredients and deliver dishes quickly and cheaply with no wastage. A family might even order different dishes from different locations to create a meal.

Nothing is 100% good for everybody — there will be disruption in the retail industry, and retailers who exist primarily so you can go get things will have trouble competing if they don’t embrace this model, but other retailers who are suffering from competition from the online stores may find they can now dominate with fast service.

Of course, there might be competition in the air. Our students at Singularity University were among the first to work on drone delivery with the Matternet project which is beginning a trial delivering for the post office on the steep slopes of Switzerland. Both methods face legal challenges, and both have their advantages. Drones will be faster and can cover unusual terrain, while ground robots can carry more with less energy and have an easier time landing. :-) I suspect people will tolerate small robots on their sidewalks more than drones with heavy packages over their heads, but we’ll see.

Note that I’m a special advisor to Starship on both technology and business, but this post is written with my own voice, and doesn’t speak on behalf of the company.

This article originally appeared on robocars.com.